TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

…NOEL TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST…

AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES… 70 KM…SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES…280 KM…
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15
KM/HR…AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND SLOWLY INCREASING ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB…29.38 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS…WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA…WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION…24.5 N…77.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.