The macro-economic impact analysis will determine Carnival success
Watch the FNM break up right over this Carnival Event!
I note with some interest your headline story entitled “WAS CARNIVAL REALLY A SUCCESS?” of 21st May 2015
Firstly, the vast majority of experts in the arts, culture and entertainment community have characterized the inaugural 2015 Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival a critical and artistic success and a step in the right direction in the growth and development of culture in The Bahamas, its inter-industrial linkage to our number one industry, tourism and in the integration of culture into the country’s national economy. There were over five hundred participants from the cultural community and they were generally satisfied with the outcome.
The Bahamian people who were the customers of this product endorsed this celebratory event overwhelmingly with some 90,000 spectators and participants according to police estimates. Many Bahamians expressed regret that they failed to “jump in line” during the Road Fever Parade and would be left behind in 2016.
Secondly, the Tribune’s editorial position appears to be to interview vendors who did not fare well financially and to use that singular issue to question the success of Carnival. That is bias, unfair and does not tell the entire story. Further, if the Tribune’s criterion is used, then everything becomes a failure because of the statistical principle of the “Bell Distribution Curve.”
Thirdly, in the interest of fairness and balance – is the Tribune prepared to interview the vendors who fared well financially during Carnival? Interview the hotels that were sold out; the food and drinks vendors that sold out; the car rental companies that sold out. That would be a good exercise as readers would have the benefit of both sides of the story and could draw a more informed conclusion as to the success of carnival. My personal favourites are the taxi driver who turned down jobs so he could take in some of the festivities. Another favourite is the food vendor who because of her financial success at carnival was able to pay her child’s upcoming school fees in full. The List of success stories goes on and on.
There is an economics rule of thumb in calculating the macroeconomic impact of an investment. If the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impact is 3.5 to 4 times the investment, then statistically, the investment was a macroeconomic success. The Commission invested some $9 million and a GDP impact of $31.5 million to $36 million nationally would spell success for the 2015 Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival. The Commission investment $1 million in the Grand Bahama leg of the festival and according to the Carnival Commission, the GDP impact on the economy of Grand Bahama was around $17 million to $18 million or 17 to 18 times the investment. Statistically, the Grand Bahama leg of Carnival was an unqualified macroeconomic success.
As for New Providence, let us wait on the economic impact analysis from the Festival Commission shall we? With the Grand Bahama results in, we are more than half way there.