A BP EXCLUSIVE with Al Jarrett – Gov’t Budget Analysis – PART 3

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AL JARRETT. Photo by Jones Communications

BAHAMIAN ECONOMY
A MACRO-ECONOMIC REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF THE INGRAHAM GOVERNMENT’S ANNUAL BUDGETARY & FISCAL PERFORMANCE
(2007-2010)

BY AL JARRETT

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD A BUDGET ANALYSIS BY AL JARRETT

I    OVERVIEW

The first lesson one is taught in first year business class is defining what an annual budget represents and the basic components it should incorporate.  They are essentially five:-

♣    A budget must be realistic
♣    A budget must be measurable
♣    A budget must be predictable
♣    A budget must be achievable
♣    A budget must be adaptable

The other important ingredient is that it should incorporate business priorities for the period projected.  This must then be accompanied by a Strategic Plan geared toward managing the budgetary process for results or (MFR).  If a budget fails to adhere to these fundamental standards, it sadly would fall into the category of being managed as a result (MAR) or reacting to the results after the “horses have already left the barn”.  You see, if you manage for results, you can determine the probability of the outcome of these results.  These basic tenets also hold true for a Government’s budget, as a Government is only just another big business.

Mr. Ingraham will now be well-served if he immediately uses the latest consultant’s report done by the IDB. This report indicted his Government for lacking strategic planning and management for results practices. It indicts the Government, stating that those are the reasons for annual budget imbalances and untrained ministerial direction.

CLICK TO DOWNLOAD A BUDGET ANALYSIS BY AL JARRETT

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Albury,

    Thank you for your post. The gentleman in question has not responded — as I expected — as he knows that I will rip apart any “argument” given his lack of any analytical/written skill.

    But you are right sir: I should have been a bit more graceful in revealing his utter incompetence.

    Best Regards

  2. I was deeply saddened by this “analysis”. I was hoping for a hard-hitting, factual forensic analysis of the current government’s budget. We really need this because the FNM has done some good things but also has made some really serious mistakes.

    Unfortunately, this diatribe is filled with errors, personal opinions not supported by facts, outright errors and smacks of a disgruntled ex-employee who stills bears a grudge.

    Mr. Jarrett, rule number one for ANY budget analysis is GET THE NUMBERS RIGHT!

    You made such a stupid mistake in your first set of figures that if it weren’t so sad it would be laughable (and you would immediately be fired once the laughter died down):

    Quote on page 2 under Key Macro Economic Data and Analysis: “(In millions of Dollars)”. It is billions, not millions. Sir, such sloppiness is simply unacceptable and poisons all subsequent text and figures. If you can’t get the easiest thing right, well…

    I won’t waste my or BP readers’ time with many other figure errors, and simply jump straight to your page 16.

    1) “Missed opportunity to close out the Bahamar deal in 2007/8….”

    Sir, that deal was done in total secrecy by the PLP and it had 5 years to close the deal. It is well known what happened to Harrah’s after it was purchased and the recession hit. This is a purely biased opinion, not analysis.

    2) Missed opportunity to close out the BTC/Blue Water sale.

    Both the FNM and PLP were terribly derelict here. But again, the PLP had 5 years. And the principals behind Blue Water know about as much about telecommunications as my grandmother and she’s been dead for 20 years.

    3) Missed opportunity in closing out the Central Eleuthera/Hatchet Bay $1bil proposal…”

    The viability of this venture was a joke from the start. Look around at all the mega projects now.

    4) “Missed opportunity to build Abaco Plant on Snake Cay for $50mil…”

    Please, we all know why certain developers scuttled that plan. That does not excuse the FNM’s poor behavior but yet again you don’t tell the whole story. More importantly, the difference is negligible for a budget analysis (and must I remind you that you were the man who vehemently opposed better infrastructure in the Family Islands because you couldn’t get a return (forgetting the massive amounts of revenue that Abaco generates for the central government)?

    5) Missed opportunity in his Government’s inability to better manage the strong economy and headroom left by the Christie Administration.”

    I simply can’t believe that an ex-senior banking official could make such a dumb statement. Nothing in your piece supports this. You say 50% of the problem is from the global recession. Where did you get that number? Be explicit in your reasoning!

    6) “Missed opportunity to unite the Country (sic) around a vision to move forward.”

    What does this have to do with a budget analysis? Nothing.

    7) Missed opportunity to establish a University (sic)…”

    And this as well has what to do with the budget?

    8) Missed opportunity of pursuing a real Universal Health Insurance Plan…”

    And how pray tell would you have financed this?

    In summary, your article is — sadly — a damning indictment of your lack of intellectual vigor.

    I ran a global research organization and believe me, you would never have been hired to be a junior clerk in my firm if this document is any indication of your analytical capability.

    I eagerly await your response.

    • You made correct observations, Sir. But you are a bit harsh with Al – for he cannot help it. He does not have it, never had it. It is better to disregard the “analysis”. Maybe one day Al will come to his senses and stops believing he knows it all.

  4. A note to Al.
    If you wish to present a analysis – do that. Your “analysis” sounds more like a story. Give the facts and keep it short.
    You might remember what your business plan was when you took over as Chairman. You proclaimed that BEC would be sold to private interests by the end of Christie’s administration and “you would be the driving force”. Well, eat your own words, slow down and think before you talk.

  6. It is so blatantly clear like Mr. Jarrett has said, this FNM government lacks strategic planning and management for results practices. Appointing a junior minister in charge of Finance, one who when the disclosures were made, showed that he did not have one single financial investment by way of stocks or bonds showed the depth of his financial/business acumen.

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