HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15

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There was a time in The Bahamas when newspapers in this country gave the people of The Bahamas Hurricane Tracking maps in their print. Two weather systems, (TS Hanna, Hurricane IKE) threatens the country and NOT A SINGLE MAP COULD BE FOUND IN ANY OF THE NEWSPAPERS! But the ‘WUTLESS MEDIA’ in The Bahamas are SOO OUT-OF-TOUCH with the people, they have forgotten that VALUABLE service! Therefore, Bahamas Press will give help in this, download your  your personal tracking map.  (CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD YOUR TRACKING MAP: at_track_chart.pdf)

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE…THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM…THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.

THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.  STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  IN FACT…THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE…THOUGH THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.  IN A COUPLE DAYS…VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND…COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS…SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE’S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12…SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE… CAUSING A WEST…AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE.  THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY…WITH THE GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.