With your permission, am asking you to post my views on the FNM’s reaction to the bye election victory on Tuesday on the main blog page.
On Tuesday March 23, the election courts handed down a ruling that most political analysts were expecting; a ruling in favor of Ryan Pinder. What wasn’t expected was the ruling to allow all 5 of the votes to be counted as valid. The decision to allow all 5 ballots was the silver lining that the Prime Minister needed to deflect from the real issues at the heart of his party’s loss in the bye election.
Mr Ingraham called a press conference to temper the FNM’s loss yesterday but strangely he didn’t blame Dr Sands or the way his campaign was ran. He didn’t blame the apathetic voter in Elizabeth who didn’t show up. He didn’t even blame the Parliamentary Commissioner or his department for their blatant errors. No, Mr Ingraham implied that the judges made an error in their ruling. That’s right. It was the judges fault. The judges screwed the FNM out of their win.
Once the talking points were established, many FNM’s seems to have clung to this notion that they should have won were it not for the judges bad ruling. But what they don’t seem to acknowledge is that even if that vote was thrown out, it wouldn’t have changed the outcome. Ryan Pinder still would have won.
What you see HAI and the FNM doing now is called SPINNING. Mr Ingraham wants assure and persuade his base that the only way he could loose is if some unforeseen force intervenes. So the bye election was won by the FNM until the courts got involved.
Why are they spinning? They are spinning because the outcome wasn’t what they had anticipated nor planned for. Had all things gone according to plan, Dr Sands was suppose to win by at least 300 votes. The ensuing aftermath was suppose to be a rabid media ripping of Perry Christie, followed by the continuous questioning of his leadership accompanied with stories about divisions in the PLP from their “unnamed sources” for the next few months, right into the general election.
The bias media would be doing its best to create the perception that Mr Christie has lost his appeal because under his leadership he lost in 2007 and the bye election in Elizabeth. That’s the drum beat the Tribune, Guardian, Ortland Bodie, Jeff Lloyd and Wendell Jones would be beating too until a general election is called. You see, had all things go according to plan, the FNM was suppose to be going into the general election with its main rival, the PLP, having a wounded leader and a divided party. Meanwhile no one would have been paying attention to the woes of the country and bad governance of Hubert Ingraham and the FNM.
My fellow readers, make no mistake, the planning of this bye election was meticulously done. With a bye election coming on the heels of an intentional 2 year fixation by the Trubune on the PLP’s leadership, coupled with Malcolm Adderley’s resignation, this bye election seemed like a brilliant move by Mr Ingraham.
Look at the amount of effort the FNM put into Elizabeth. The PM, every cabinet minister, FNM operatives, BEC, BATELCO, and the Ministry of Works basically lived in Lizzy for almost 4 weeks. Considering the effort put in by the FNM government, it speaks to how desperately wanted this seat. They wanted to win badly and win big.
But something went wrong. In the FNM’s miscalculation, they didn’t calculate the mood of the country and the Elizabeth voter. For whatever reason, Mr Ingraham and the FNM assumed Lizzy would just pick Dr Sands and forget about the bad economy, high unemployment, the crime rate, traffic congestion, etc. To this day I would like to know what Mr Ingraham saw on the ground in that constituency that lead him to believe that he and Dr Sands would win by 300 votes?
So all this talk about the judges allowance of that one voter with no voters card is pure rubbish and pure spin. I mean how can you explain losing a bye election when your party just won the government 2 and 1/2 years ago, your party controls all government apparatus and the public purse? You cant explain that. Someone has to take the fall. Who is the fall guy? Well we know who ISN’T taking the fall. That’s right. Your friendly neighborhood Prime Minister. He couldn’t get off that plane fast enough yesterday to blame those judges, lol.
But i submit that Mr Ingraham lost more than just a potential seat in Parliament. He out schemed himself and in the process, suddenly Hubert Alexander Ingraham doesn’t look so invincible. Suddenly it looks like Branville was on to something when he decided to resign from cabinet. Suddenly the PLP gains confidence that they can beat him. Suddenly the mastermind doesnt look so smart. When an unexpected loss like this happens not only does HAI looks vulnerable to his opponents, but those in his own party who are aiming for his leadership seat smell blood.
Yes, the beast has been wounded!
So why the extravagant plan by the FNM? Simple. They know they are in trouble. They sense the mood of the electorate is turning against them but what they didn’t have was a firm grasp on how entrenched the mood was until the bye election. Like the referendum of 2000, the bye election was the gauge Mr Ingraham used to take the temperature of the country. He didn’t like the referendum results then and he doesn’t like the bye election results now. In 2000 he blamed the people, saying he was ashamed. After the 2012 bye election loss, he implied the judges were wrong. Are you getting the picture? So what did he do after the referendum in 2000? He bailed on the FNM. I ask you readers, what do you think Mr Ingraham is about to do later this year or early next year? LOL!
This bye election was unnecessary. It would have been better for the FNM had Mr Adderley just cross the floor and finished his term. With Mr Adderley shilling for the FNM, that would have been a constant reminder of his deflection from the PLP. But since his resignation, has anyone seen or heard from Mr Adderley? Papa probably have him wrap in some aluminum foil, deep in his bag. In his mean spirited ways, Mr Ingraham couldn’t resist the opportunity to kick Perry Christie one more time. So he schemed, took the risk, went all in and lost.
Yes Mr Ingraham, in 2001 you saw the blood bath that was awaiting your party in the 2002 general election and you jumped ship. Fast forward to 2010 and you sure as hell see the big tsunami gaining steam and headed your way. If I were an FNM council member, I wouldn’t let you bail this time like you did in 2001. No sir. I would make you take the helm of the sinking FNM ship right into the next general election because your presence, or the lack thereof, will be the determining factor as to whether or not the FNM gets rejected or decimated at the polls.
FNM’s wake up! Your leader is about to go all Houdini on yall and disappear on more time. Like the saying goes, fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Thank you Bahamas Press